What if AI doesn't grow?

The problem with projections about the growth of AI is that they are just projections. By their nature, projections are right when their assumptions about reality are right. We don't linearly project the growth of toddlers and assume they will become 20 feet tall (and be very good in the NBA) because of our prior knowledge about what human growth dynamics are like. We don't have comparable knowledge about the growth dynamics of a new technology like LLMs. In hindsight we will see that some projections were right and some were wrong. "Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make money." I think optimism is great, but let's not get it confused with a law of nature.